Last week got fucked because the Lauzon fight was canceled. I was reading somewhere that Lauzon was piping one of the cleaners in his hotel shower pre-fight, slipped a bit, and tweaked his knee. I watched an entire video of him getting treatment on it and that’s the conclusion I came to as well. His knee wouldn’t move. Needless to say, the Buckler fucking popped so it wasn’t a complete loss.
It’s time for this week’s plays. I’m trying out a different format this week. I’ll be picking 3 favorites and 3 underdogs, regardless of if they fit into one lineup.
Let’s start with the favorites.
I’m looking straight at Thiago Moises ($9k). He’s lost his last two fights against two tough opponents but has the fourth-best odds (+300) for a round 1 finish. I have absolutely no doubt that he is going to dick clap Giagos into the middle of next week in round 1 of this fight. Here’s a video of me measuring my stack of cash after winning this week on the back of Moises:
I’m going to eat big-time chalk on this next play (44%), but it’s by far the best play on the card. It’s time to fire up Umar Nurmagomedov. He’s won 5 straight fights. In 4 of those fights, he curled the opponent into a position from which they can easily suck their own fucking ballsack with little or no head movement. He has the best chance to finish his opponent in round 1 of any fighter (+190). I expect him to have no problem submitting ManAss in round 1.
The third fighter I like this week is Carlos “Black Jag” Ulbergler. He isn’t necessarily a favorite (the fight looks to be close to 50/50) but he is +180 to finish the fight inside the distance and you’ll be able to get him at one of the lowest ownerships of this range (23%). He has won 4 of his last 5, including a round 1 win. He wins this fight in round 2.
If you want to guzzle chalk down here too, I’d recommend playing Rodolfo Vieira, but playing underdog chalk is a way to get fucking dick dusted.
A bit of a pivot from the chalk is Josh Parisian. He’s only a slight underdog in the fight and has the second-best odds of the underdogs to win inside the distance (+290). This guy is an absolute tank at 6’4″ and 262 pounds. He would compress my body like a fucking pancake. He’s lost 2 of his last 3 fights, but don’t be alarmed. He can win a fight at any moment (10 of his 14 wins have come via knockout) and I expect him to pull off the slight upset on Saturday night at about 21% ownership.
The next play I like is Brian “Boom Dick” Kelleher. He’s going to be a bit higher owned than I’d like, but he has the third-best odds of any underdog for an inside-the-distance finish (+300). At 135 pounds, Boom Dick will likely look to buckle Bautista into submission. I expect a round 3 win via submission. Boom Dick celebrating his win:
The last play I have is Vanessa Demopoulos. You aren’t going to get any leverage directly from her winning (her opponent is going to be fairly low-owned), but she is a great play in an absolute ass shit group of underdogs. There can be a significant amount of variance involved in the women’s fights so hopefully, we get some of that here as she is a sizable underdog. She has won 2 of her last 3 fights with two of them being first-round finishes. If she’s going to pull off the upset this weekend she will need to land some major shots. She has the best inside the distance win odds (+500) of the lower end of the $7k range.
I’m ready for some fucking redemption after last week.
I’ll be back next week.
-Cash God-
If you like this content, please follow on Twitter and subscribe below.
Photo credit: Esther Lin, MMA Fighting
The Cash God 