Genesis Scottish Open Preview: The Joker and Positive Regression


Stanley Steamer made an entrance last weekend and took a fucking dump into Adam Hadwin’s open mouth. I don’t know what was worse between him missing the cut or me playing him at $10k and 20%+ ownership. I thought he was the best player in the field and I was clearly wrong. He fucking sucked on Thursday and couldn’t overcome it. Then Lucas Glover put the nail in the coffin for me late Friday afternoon. He actually made a reasonable effort going -5 on Friday but ended up also taking the Stanley Steamer to the face and missed the cut.

It’s time for the plays.

There are only 4 golfers above $10k this week so I’ll just pick one. It’s time to fire up the engine and bust out Thomas the Tank. He has two top 10 finishes at this event and 3 top 5 finishes in his last 5 tournaments this year. He’s second in strokes gained and is projected to be 15% owned compared to a 20% Rahm. I don’t see a path for him to not dick slap this tournament. He is the best play in this range unless you’re willing to gulp 20% Rahm.

Stranger Things Horror GIF by pammypocket - Find & Share on GIPHY

We finally have some talent in the $9k range after the worst one I’ve seen in my life last week. These two are easy picks.

The first is Cam Smith. I’m not sure if he is having constant flashbacks of hitting Aaron Wise in the dome with the ball or what because he has been complete, utter dogshit for the past 2 events. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open and finished T48 at the RBC Canadian Open in early June. This is almost purely a positive regression bet because he has been gurgling on his own sack so fucking hard lately there isn’t much that points to him having success this week. At least we will get him at lower ownership. I expect him to bounce back and get into form prior to The Open.

The other play I like is Collin Morikawa. He finally let his dick creep out a little bit at the U.S. Open, where he finished 5th. Other than that he’s been really struggling similar to Cam Smith, finishing 25th or worse in 4 straight tournaments. That might not be bad for some of the $7k shitters but when you’re paying $9k+ you hope to get some better finishes. He took an Odell-sized dump to the fucking chest last year at this tournament (T71), but I expect him to play well this week at the second-lowest ownership in the range (13%). The pile of shit on his chest last year:

Jurassic Park Deal With It GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

It looks like this is the week of positive regression. The next play is Viktor Hovland. I played his sorry ass at the U.S. Open and am really hesitant to click his name again after that showing. He’s been horrific around the green, but elite in all other metrics. Before his missed cut at the U.S. Open he had made 9 straight cuts, including a top ten, two top 5s, and a T27 at the Masters. He is the best play in the $8k range and will rebound this week harder than my dick each morning after the whack.

I’m playing Fleetwood Mac again. I can’t stop playing the fucking hits. He finished T46 last week and missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but was T14 at the Masters, T10 at RBC Heritage, and T5 at the PGA Championship. He has shown the crowd big his balls are multiple times and will do it again this weekend. He was the runner-up at this event in 2020 and finished 26th last year. He has top 5 upside in any tournament and I expect him to be in contention all weekend. Fleetwood at the U.S. Open:

Testicles GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

Grab the fucking rods and meet on the dock at dawn, we are going Sea Bass fishing. Sebastian Munoz is a cut-making machine with 11 straight. He isn’t just slipping his dick across the line in some of these either. He has a T3 at Byron Nelson, a T25 at the RBC Canadian Open, and a T14 at the U.S. Open. The upside is clear and it seems as if he is going a bit overlooked at 6%. I’m going balls fucking deep.

It brings a tear to my eye seeing this name still in the field. It’s Jason Cockrack. I wasn’t sure we’d see him on the PGA tour ever again, but he’s back after his ejection at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. Before his abysmal performance at the U.S. Open and his blowup last week he had made 5 straight cuts, including a T14 at the Masters. At 2.1% ownership, he will be one of the best leverage plays on the slate at a very low price ($7.3k)

The $6k range was extremely difficult for me this week. The first play I like is Wyndham Clark. I’m back in the fucking well. He’s made 2 of his last 3 cuts, including a T7 at the RBC Canadian Open. You’re not going to beat that at $6.5k and a projected 1% ownership.

The other name I like here is Matt Wallace. He’s been kinda dogshit this year, missing 3 of his past 5 cuts. Having said that he seems to fucking slap this course each year (T26, T30, and T14 in the past 3 years). I expect him to bounce back from getting his dick run over by John Deere last week and play well this week.

Turbo Malfunction GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

It’s time for the Cash God Guarantee. This week it’s the Joker, Joaquin Niemann. He was sucking his own sack the last time we saw him (missed cut at Travelers Championship), but had been playing well before that. He is top 15 in strokes gained and has a T3 at the Memorial Tournament, a T23 at the PGA Championship and a T25 at AT&T Byron Nelson in 3 of his past 5 events. I need a bankroll building week in the worst way. I’ll gladly pay to repair the dick-shaped hole in the sheetrock if it ends up going well this week.

I’ll be back next week.

-CashGod-

If you like this content, please follow on Twitter and subscribe below.

Image from Hector Vivas, Getty Images.


Leave a comment