In hindsight, the Cantplay fade looked like absolute dog ass, but at 40% ownership, I think you can make the argument that it wasn’t that bad. His collapse on Sunday was borderline poetic. I was a Denny McCarthy dick gurgling away from a 6/6 single entry, but at least Kim uncoiled his python and finished T4. As I said, we will not see that price again on him.

The field this week finally doesn’t look like the pile of shit on Odell’s chest.

It’s time for the plays.

I thought a better field would bring a little less chalk consolidation, but that doesn’t look like the case. The chalk is grouped on some of these top guys like geese waiting to be fed at the local pond.

I’m going to say Corey Connors ($9k) personal sack gurgling (missed cut) was simply a warmup round to start the season at the Fortinet Championship. He finished last season a bit slow with 4 20th or worse finishes in his last 5 events. That isn’t horrific, but if we are paying over $9k it would be nice of him to finish in the top 20 sometimes. He still has a T5 at the BMW Championship within the past 2 months and finished T7 at this event in 2019. I like him to bounce back at half the ownership of the more expensive Hovland and Kim in the $9ks.

The clear play over $10k is Collin Morikawa ($10.2k). Xander might be the top projected golfer, but Morikawa is still 11th in recent form strokes gained and finished T7 at this tournament last year. This will be his first tournament of the new season after a bit of a tanking to end last year (3 missed cuts in his final 7 events). I expect him to have taken the time off, rested up, set a world record for faps per month, and come back focused. Morikawa cranking out the last one for the record to close out September:

I’m not sure what happened during Cam Davis‘ first round at the Fortinet Championship last month, but I’ll just assume he won’t be shooting a 74 again this weekend. He bounced back a bit last week at the Shriners Children’s Open and I expect that to continue this weekend in Japan. We may guzzle some chalk with this play but there aren’t many better options in this range. There is no way I’m playing the Hog named Tom ($8.6k), that is a ballsack that is about to start shooting blanks.

Grab your fucking rod and meet me at the dock at dawn. We are going Seabass ($8.1k) fishing again. There is almost nothing worse than looking at a golfer’s recent results and seeing multiple cuts and zero finishes better than T35. He was in tough, tough shape to end last season, but finished T4 at this event last year despite starting that season with 3 MCs and a T49. I expect a good performance on a course that he is clearly comfortable on.

My two favorite leverage plays are from the $7k range. Mark Hubbard looks like the chalk donkey of the week at almost 20%. This isn’t some sort of hot take, but I’ve come to the conclusion that playing anyone chalky in the $7ks is one of the worst moves in DFS.

The first one is named Andrew Putnam ($7.6k). He is somehow in the top 10 of recent form strokes gained and has 3 straight made cuts on the season, including a T12 last week at the Shriners. His history at this event is a bit of a boner killer (T39 and T59), but the strokes gained, his <5% ownership projection, and being $100 less than Hubbard make him one of the best plays on the slate.

The other play I like in the $7ks is Matt Wallace ($7.2k). He has started off the season with a T21 and T28, despite leaving a trail of shit in his wake to end last season (3 cuts in his last 5 events). He finished 4th at this event last year and is also one of the better leverage plays of the slate at the same price as a double-digit owned Wyndham Clark. I found a live shot of Wallace celebrating a birdie on Sunday as he moves into the top 10:

We have arrived at the $6ks. The first name my eyes are drawn to is Dick Ryder ($6.6k). He somehow missed the cut at the Fortinet Championship, but has made 2 straight cuts coming into this tournament. He will be under 5% owned and finished T7 last year at this event. There is nothing better than getting a free bargain bin player, I’ll be playing him.

This next play is going to be a name I’ll likely never say again. Takumi Kanaya might be the best value in the field at $6.6k. He finished T7 last year on his home course in Japan and was formerly the number-one-ranked Amateur golfer in the world. This is nothing more than a course history play. Kanaya is my favorite dart play of the week along with Dick Ryder.

It’s time for the Cash God Guarantee. I don’t know how you fade Bigdicki this week. Matsuyama absolutely cock slaps this course. In his last two tournaments here he finished first (2021) and second (2019). You’d think he would be the chalkiest golfer on the slate based on that alone, but yet he is projected to be the lowest owned besides Morikawa in the $10k range. Here’s a live shot of me on Sunday once Bigdicki wins it:

I’ll be back next week.

-CashGod-

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