Valspar Championship Preview: Shit Weather and Redemption


I woke up on Thursday morning to take a look at my lineups and the first thing I saw was the Hedicki WD. I was already tilting from Wednesday night when I somehow only entered 92 lineups in a contest that I wanted to enter 150. Holy shit. It got even worse when I confirmed my ownership on Hedicki was almost 50%. My lineups were fucked before the tournament even began.

Somehow all of this was topped off by the wind and rain that caused Xander, who I had 75% of, to take his club and hack his own dick off. Also, what the fuck was Zach Johnson doing?

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It’s time for the plays of the week.

Viktor Hovland is on the run of a lifetime. If you play him you’ll be guzzling chalk, but for good reason. I will likely be playing Morikawa instead for the most part. He got a shit tee time and had to finish his round in the hurricane. He’s never played in this tournament but has been playing well lately outside of last week. He has two top 5 finishes in his last 5 events and is in a great spot to bounce back.

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In the $9k range there are a few names I like. First, what was Koepka doing last week? I think he completely mailed it in after putting one in the water on 17.

The best play in this range is very clearly Jason Cockrack. He has great course history with a 13th place finish and two top tens in the past 3 years.

Another play I like here is Sam Burns. We are back on the Cock-Burns combo. He won this tournament last year and has made the cut 3/3 times he has played it.

This is a situation where you may be asking, “Cash God, isn’t it a little repetitive to play these guys every week? What if the well is dry?”. No, it’s not. These are simply the best plays and the Burning Cock correlation is so strong, look at the models. As always:

The best play in the $8k range is Alex Noren. It might come as a surprise that Woodcock is not featured, but I’m not too high on him this week. He looked like shit last week and wasn’t even part of the ass tee times. Noren has been on fire lately with 2 top 10 finishes in his last 4 tournaments and finished 21st in this event last year.

The other play I like in this range is Webby Simpson. Similar to a sack creeping out of your shorts at the gym when you forget compressions, there is some doubt that creeps into your head when you see his last tournament here (118th place MC). My only thought is that he had an unfortunate visit to Mr. Waller’s Surgeon prior to last year and hopefully is healed by now. The only other concern here is that he hasn’t played much lately, coming off an injury, but he has a top 10 finish at this event. Here’s Webb last week – you can even see a bit of a grin on his face:

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It’s time for the $7k range. We are going to Denny’s. Denny McCarthy has played in this event twice, is 2/2 on cuts including a top 10 finish in 2020. He’s been playing well lately and is by far the best play here.

After Denny’s, we are gassing up the fucking Jet to Vegas. Jhonattan seems underpriced for the strength of the field. He’s only played in this tournament once, but made the cut and has 4 made cuts and a top 10 finish in his last 5 events.

There is no chance this tournament runs without me having at least 25% of The Jizzer (Patton Kizzire). He has 4 straight made cuts, one of those being a top 10 finish in Phoenix. He also finished 32nd in a tough field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The final play I like in the $7ks is Matthias “Charles” Schwab. The iron is hot – he’s coming off back-to-back top 10 finishes (one in Puerto Rico and one in a tough field at PGA National). The only concern is that he has not played here before. Schwab and I getting off the jet in Vegas:

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Draftkings did not do us any favors in the $6k range. One of my favorite plays is the inventor of basketball, Matthew NeSmith. He’s 1/1 on cuts at this tournament and made the cut at both Riviera and PGA National this year.

The best play is Vaughn Taylor. He finished 6th last year and has made 4 straight cuts. Vaughn may be a bit underpriced given his recent form, tournament history, and field strength. Given how dogshit the rest of the $6k range is he may catch a higher ownership percentage, but he is certainly one of the best values in the entire field.

A complete shot in the dark this week is Stephan Jaegerbombs. He’s made the cut 1/2 times he’s played in this event and has 3 made cuts in his last 4 events. I will be playing him correlated with Vegas. We are ripping Jaegerbombs all fucking weekend.

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It’s time for the Valspar CGG. I’m back inside the well, searching for any semblance of water. This week it’s Xander again. Similar to Morikawa, he got fucked over on tee times an ended up finishing in the worst weather. He was swinging his dick around at around -5 but ended up missing the cut at +7. He’s never played here before, but is playing great right now with a top 15, a third place finish, and a top 20 in his last 4 tournaments. It’s time for redemption and a new hole in the wall, Xander.

I’ll be back next week.

-CashGod-

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